Washington, D.C.鈥斺淣onresidential construction shrugged off the turmoil in homebuilding and credit markets in July to post another solid gain,鈥 Ken Simonson, Chief Economist for 上海张越老师出轨 of America (上海张越老师出轨), said today. Simonson was commenting on the September 4 construction spending report from the Census Bureau.
鈥淎lthough total construction spending slipped 0.4 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, and residential fell 1.4 percent, nonresidential spending climbed 0.6 percent, the 10th consecutive monthly gain,鈥 Simonson observed. 鈥淔or the first seven months of 2007 combined, total construction was down 3.4 percent and residential plummeted 18 percent compared to the same period in 2006. Those figures obscure the 15 percent jump in nonresidential spending.
鈥淧rivate nonresidential construction鈥攖he type that might seem most vulnerable to a credit pullback鈥攕howed no sign of contagion, rising 0.4 percent in July and 17 percent year-to-date,鈥 Simonson noted. 鈥淭he three most speculative components鈥攃ommercial, office and lodging鈥攁ll advanced. Commercial construction was up 0.6 percent for the month and 15 percent year-to-date. The two biggest commercial subcomponents鈥攎ulti-retail (鈥榖ig box鈥 and other general merchandise stores, shopping centers and malls) and warehouses鈥攂oth leaped 4 percent in July and 28 percent year-to-date. Private office construction climbed 0.6 percent and 22 percent, and lodging shot up 0.8 percent and 60 percent.
鈥淥ther strong gainers included power, up 0.5 percent and 19 percent, and private health care (principally hospitals), up 1.3 percent and 13 percent,鈥 Simonson remarked. 鈥淚 anticipate these categories will remain vigorous, but I expect credit-sensitive types such as office, warehouse, retail and lodging to slow soon.
鈥淧ublic construction was up 0.7 percent in July and 11 percent year-to-date,鈥 Simonson commented. 鈥淭he biggest component, education, rose 1.9 percent and 12 percent. But highway and street construction, which received a big boost in late 2005 and early 2006, was down 0.8 percent for the month and was only 5 percent higher year-to-date. Partly, that reflects lower prices for diesel and asphalt, but it also shows states are running short of highway funds as gas tax receipts slow.
鈥淗ighway spending could drop sharply late next year,鈥 Simonson warned. 鈥淟ast week, the Congressional Budget Office projected a $5 billion deficit in the federal Highway Trust Fund鈥檚 Highway Account in fiscal year 2009, which begins in just 13 months. Congress will need to bridge that gap in order to keep road spending from plunging.鈥
Media advisory: Simonson will speak about highway construction costs at an 上海张越老师出轨-sponsored conference on Tuesday, September 11, at the St. Louis Airport Hilton. Contact for details.
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